” Pengalaman tidak selalu guru yang terbaik, kalau kita tidak mangambil hikmahnya. Oleh sebab itu ambillah hikmah dari pengalaman sukses orang lain, karena anda tidak perlu biaya untuk itu””

Setelah kita mengetahui psikologi pasar modal secara umum dari tulisan saya pada edisi sebelumnya. Di mana ada tiga unsur psikologis yaitu :

1. Disiplin pribadi
2. Kontrol emosi
3. Keberanian untuk perubahan

Kita masih ingat dengan “seorang pemuda tampan yang dengan PEDE nya tidak mau menerima masukan atau advis dari siapapun yang akhirnya ketika pasar bullish, portofolio sang pemuda tampan tersebut tidak mengikuti pasar yang sedang tren naik.” Penulis berharap pengalaman pemuda di atas tidak akan terjadi pada kita semua. Namun ada juga suatu pengalaman yang indah dari “seorang mahasiswa dari salah satu perguruan tinggi swasta, yang mana dia mampu membayar SPP kuliahnya dengan berinvestasi pada pasar saham. Mahasiswa ini sangat aktif dan peka terhadap perkembangan, hanya dengan modal Rp 20.000.000 dapat menghasilkan profit sekitar 5 % per bulan. Sehingga dalam setahun sudah terkumpul keuntungan Rp 25.000.000 dan dalam tahun kedua Rp 40.000.000. Akhirnya mahasiswa ini menyelesaikan studinya sambil berinvestasi di pasar saham”. Dari dua contoh pengalaman tersebut, pasti dengan logika sederhana saja kita akan memilih pengalaman seperti mahasiswa ketimbang seorang pemuda yang hanya SOK PEDE.!!

Ternyata mahasiswa ini sangat menguasai Psikologi pasar modal dan mempunyai tips dalam berinvestasi. Tentunya, mahasiswa ini dalam day to day perjalanannya investasi di pasar saham tidak melulu untung, tapi dia dapat menyiasati perkembangan sehingga lebih banyak untungnya dari pada ruginya.

OK terbukti Tips juga dapat merupakan hal pokok dalam berinvestasi pasar saham. Saya mengibaratkan dengan menguasai tips artinya ” seorang melakukan perburuan di kebun binatang, tapi kalau kita tidak ada tips sama saja kita berburu di hutan belantara yang sangat sulit mencari mangsa”. Bahasa kerennya tips adalah Policy (Kebijakan) yang harus dimiliki oleh investor dalam berinvestasi.

Semua orang tahu Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Onnasis, Jack Wealch, Iacocca. Mereka adalah tokoh-tokoh dunia yang mewarnai perekonomian global yang mempunyai prinsip-prinsip atau pilosofi hidup yang terbukti berhasil dalam menjawab tantangan zaman. Selama ini, penulis selalu hobi mengutip kata-kata dari tokoh-tokoh tersebut dan ternyata tanpa disadari sangat match diterapkan sebagai tips dalam dinamika Pasar Modal atau khususnya Pasar Saham (Stock Market).

Dibawah ini, penulis mencoba merangkum prinsip-prinsip tersebut sebagai berikut :

1. Jangan pernah terjebak dalam ketergesaan/buru-buru
Banyak investor terkecoh dengan sifat tergesa-gesa, padahal kalau kita berfikir lebih tenang, disadari bahwa pasar saham tidak akan pernah tutup besok. Dengan kata lain tidak ada kata telat dalam investasi yang ada hanya yakin atau tidak terhadap instrumen investasi yang dipilih. Jadi kita harus buang sifat ini dan seperti diketahui bersama bahwa Better Late Than Never (lebih baik telat dari tidak sama sekali.

2. Jangan membiarkan kerugian kecil menjadi besar
Pada pertengahan tahun lalu 2007, pasar modal Indonesia terkena dampak global yaitu Subprime Mortgage (gagal bayarnya tunggakan-tunggakan kredit kepimilikan rumah di Amerika Serkat), lalu akhir-akhir ini terkena dampak keanikan harga minyak mentah menjadi US$ 100 per barrel bahkan sekarang sudah menembus angka psikologis tersebut. Dari dua kasus ini sebagian besar investor di pasar saham mengalami loss (kerugian), namun sebagian investor tidak pernah sadar dengan kerugian tersebut. Mereka selalu menunggu durian jatuh agar harga saham bisa naik kembali, tetapi yang diperoleh hanya memperbesar kerugian yang akhirnya frustrasi.

3. Pindah posisi portofolio ketika sudah rugi
Bila terjadi hal pada poin no# 2, seharusnyalah investor merubah posisi portofolio yang secara fundamental dan teknikal menjanjikan pada waktu selanjutnya. Sebagai contoh bila sebelumnya kita memegang saham sektor properti yang sudah turun, maka kita harus pindah posisi pada saham-saham pertambangan dan perkebunan yang lebih disukai pada saat-saat Indonesia terkena dampak regional dan global.

4. Selalu fokus pada hal-hal esensi
Ada dua faktor utama dalam pemilihan saham yaitu fundamental dan teknikal (kumpulan tingkah laku investor). Hal-hal esensi dominan ditentukan oleh faktor fundamental antara lain adalah sehat atau tidaknya emiten, pengaruh makro ekonomi terhadap industri, indikator-indikator finansial. Jadi dalam hal ini, walaupun faktor teknikal juga penting tapi karena faktor fundamental banyak terkait hal-hal esensi maka harus didahulukan.

5. Ketika pasar lagi tren naik, jangan terlampau senang
6. Berfikir positif ketika pasar lagi turun sehingga tercipta optimisme sepanjang waktu
Poin # 5 dan # 6 adalah menyangkut perasaan hati investor dalam menghadapi situasi pasar saham.
Berkenaan dengan ini seorang investor harus menjaga perasaan hatinya yang mana ketika pasar
sedang naik dan sedang turun supaya tetap stabil sehingga selalu dapat berfikir logis dan menghasilkan tindakan yang sewajarnya.

7. Berinvestasi pada industri yang sudah dimengerti (don’t do that if you don’t understand)

Sehingga kita wajib mempelajari lebih dahulu secara dalam bila ingin berivestasi minimal dengan studi kelayakan yang memperhatikan hal-hal sebagai berikut :

 > General
 -Overview
 -Strategy
 -Life cycle
 -Financial summary
 >Product
 -Product line
 -Product market
 -Marketing and customers
 >Production and Distribution
 -Process & costs
 -Distribution
 -Suppliers & raw material
 >Competition
 -Environment
 -Competition analysis

8. Membeli nilai (value) investasi bukan sekedar ikut-ikutan
9. Ikuti arah pasar (market), jangan menentang pasar artinya selalu mengikuti perkembangan pasar
10. Investor yang baik selalu melihat mengantisipasi resiko, bukan melihat keuntungan semata,
Everything must be measureable (segala sesuatunya harus terukur)

Poin #8, #9 dan #10 boleh dibilang adalah klimaks dari poin-poin sebelumnya karena syarat dengan pengetahuan-pengetahuan yang mesti dikuasai investor dalam investasi pasar saham. Bisa dibilang dengan rumus VMV (Value, Market, Measureable).

Dari sepuluh tips di atas bisa saja saling bertentangan kepentingan dalam menghadapi satu masalah pada investasi pasar saham, penulis menyarankan untuk lebih dahulu mengetahui apa masalahnya secara detail lalu baru di lihat satu per satu yang cocok untuk memecahkan permasalahan tersebut. Setelah mengetahui tips di atas ada tiga kalimat yang penulis sampaikan :

• Mulailah dari yang kecil
• Mulailah dari sekarang
• Mulailah dari diri sendiri

”Mungkin kita ingin seperti Warren Buffet (orang terkaya dunia yang menekuni pasar saham), tetapi menjadi diri sendiri lebih baik dengan mangambil pengalaman-pengalaman orang yang sukses tanpa mengeluarkan biaya (for free)”.
.
”Bila anda tidak bisa merubah dunia, ubahlah lingkungan anda, bila tidak juga ubahlah diri anda agar sukses dalam berinvestasi dengan menguasai semua tips yang positif baik dari renungan, teman, guru, buku, diskusi dan lingkungan anda”.

Indonesia needs either a very inspiring dream or a wake up call. Otherwise we all will miss the train.

Every big success story begins with a small yet beautiful dream that feels real and motivating. Indonesia has either not dreamed at all since the reform began in 1998, or it has simply dreamed for too long. If we have had a good dream why has very little come into reality? On the other hand if everything in the last ten years is the battles we needed to win, then we must remind ourselves of what war we are in. We need one shared vision, one harmonious set of actions and one grateful celebration.

The greatest, cheapest yet powerful thing in life is to dream big time about what one aspire to become, and to actually pursue it when one wakes up to real life. In fact, for tens of generations the American people are always proud to sell the American Dream, among them as well as to the rest of the world. The American Dream can be as simple as a recently married couple owning a real estate or a young president in the 60s declaring that the next frontier is the moon.

However, for a nation to be great, dream only will not pull it off into reality. Again, the one thing that makes big countries great nations are their ability to dream as one and to treat that one dream as one goal. Goal here means a dream with a timeline.

Indonesia used to have such a dream under the first President Soekarno, At then, the Indonesian dream was to become a free, sovereign, legitimate and respected nation that could sit and stand as high as the older and more developed nations. Within less than 20 years after declaring independence, it did.

Under second President, Soeharto, the Indonesian dream was to bring the whole nation into one of the world’s most accounted countries through successful economic development and peaceful regional and international engagement. In around three decades, Indonesia was admitted into the privileged league of emerging economies called the Asian Tigers, amazing the rest of the world with undisputed economic success story that was dubbed the Asian miracle, chairing numerous international organizations, and hosting series of international and regional conferences.

Surely there were negative excesses from the two periods. Soekarno due to ignoring the economy for grandiose political ambition and Soeharto for neglecting the importance of good governance.

But the positive achievements remain as facts of life that allow Indonesia to have a proud history. And the people who were in the driving seats, fewer of them still a live, left a living legacy that is not less heroic for Indonesians than Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln are for the Americans.

For good or bad both Soekarno, Soeharto and all their lieutenants had the one dream, held it dearly, and successfully convinced the world’s fourth largest population to dream as one. If their periods are now, both would have been leading branding experts. They made promises, lots of them, and they fulfilled them.

They kept promises by identifying the common challenges, setting the priorities, putting the strategies in place, and assuring that the state will protect those who try to pursue the common goal, regardless of the result. In fact those who pursue the common goal were distinguished with incentives, rewards and even awards. Big ideas and quick little wins were equally appreciated. Top and lower level officials were equally heard. I vividly remember my dad at one time always taught me to recognize even the smallest life’s achievement and celebrate it.

The ambience felt exclusive for those who do not try to understand. But it felt very open and inclusive for those who were willing to share the burden of nation building exercise.

Unfortunately Indonesia ’s nation building is now hindered by stage building ventures of the elites and the opportunists. Too many compromises have been made among too many parties. This can be seen from the mushrooming number of newly established state and social apparatus, most with ad hoc or special assignments whose operations compete – if not contradict and undermine –the long-established state institutions. Surely the reform in 1998 did require such a new social consensus whereby ad hoc institutions were the vehicle for people’s aspirations to be fulfilled and carried out into the new and better way of living.

But Indonesians reformists seem to forget to prepare the importance of exit strategy from the reform mode in order to initiate a normal development autopilot. If this continues Indonesia will end up a stateless nation or a state without a national identity and purpose.

Reform can not be forever. There needs to be a time when Indonesians quit from reforming and get into developing. There needs to be time for ad hoc institutions and special apparatus to take a bullet and gracefully pass their power back to the official state institutions they initially meant to reform – and not to replace. A close friend, an investment banker, reminds me of a speech made by a top economist in the late 90s that Indonesia is a country of the future – but risk itself to remain always as the country of the future.

There needs to be a time when we decide who we are 10 years after the reform. I never apologize for repeating how important a national brand is. But maybe we can start with a national dream. That is the one dream that I, you and all the reformists can be proud of to dream as one.

by Andika Mongilala – Ketua Umum Senat Mahasiswa FE Unsrat

“Succession” must be the right theme for Indonesia this year, if not this

month. Yet when the most successful successions are anticipated in
celebratory mode, Indonesians have only witnessed mutual finger pointing, if
not black campaigns, whenever a watchful succession is around the corner at
major corporations, organizations, institutions and the country itself.

It is not a secret that nearing 2009, everyone speculates every major
succession in relation to the second direct Presidential election next year.
Since the beginning of 2008, we have seen successions at the helm of the
powerful Corruption Eradication Committee (KPK), at the top management of
Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) and conglomerate group Bakrie & Brothers
recently. Coming up are the succession of the central bank (Bank Indonesia -
BI) governor, the Chairman of the Constitutional Court and towards the end
of the year the leaders of the Supreme Court will end their term. Even my
small organization of 25,000 strong young entrepreneurs, HIPMI, will select
its new leader by July this year – thanks to its staunch principle for
one-term only chairmanship, basically I can not re-elect myself and a new
leader will have to emerge.

So hectic and hyped are all these events, yet we hardly know what we learn
from every one of these successions. Neither from the outgoing leaders nor
from the incoming successors.

Indonesia has hardly seen an exemplary succession. From the days of former
President Soekarno and Soeharto as the first and second leaders of the
country, the transitional period was not a peaceful story, much less a happy
ending one. So were the ensuing periods of the subsequent presidents.

In the past, it was possible to keep the bickering behind every succession
of major state officials in silence due to the authoritarian nature of the
rulers until Soeharto stepped down.

Now such bickering is not only revealed but is also excessively magnified
thanks to a very free media environment. Yet with all the so called freedom,
there is still not much more that the public can learn compared to before.

So what really is a succession and why have we had very little of it?

Let’s begin with what a succession is not.

First a succession is not merely about inheriting what one has built in
order to be continued by an appointee. Rather it is about believing that a
brighter future is always possible when the authority is handed to a capable
and trustworthy individual no matter what changes he or she will do.

Second, a real succession is not about a senior passing the baton to a
junior. Rather it is about handing over what is already good to become
great.

Third a succession is not about losing or getting a position. Rather it is
about passing the mandate to lead to others for a better tomorrow.

Fourth, a real succession is not about giving up a title when there is a
higher or more powerful one ready to be taken up. Rather it is about
releasing an authority whenever there are others better in doing our job.

Fifth, a real succession is not about appointing a person who looks up to
us. Rather it is about preparing those who are crazy enough to show us our
weaknesses and tell us to change course simply because he or she really
thinks about what is better for the rest of the organization.

Sixth, a real succession is not so much about competition than it is about
sharing the same vision.

Seventh, a real succession is full of celebration, not suspicion.

Just like a couple doing a perfectly danced salsa, a real succession grates
the outgoing leader, hails the incoming successor and places everyone in the
organization, company or even country, in celebration.

Let’s learn from Pepsi Co that has had decades and periods of very real and
highly envied succession. In fact, the Fortune magazine recently amazed and
entertained readers with one big question “What Makes Pepsi Great?”
featuring Indra Nooyi – Pepsi’s first female Chief Executive Officer.

The answer turns out to be beyond the genius Nooyi – Pepsi’s current Chief
Executive Officer (CEO), much less about its greatly successful soda free
beverage, much bigger than its well planned acquisition of Quaker Oats and
Tropicana, nor it is about Pepsi’s billion dollars shift to embedding great
causes such as green and health into the company’s operation and culture.

The answer goes back three leaderships before Nooyi and during every period
in between.

The one thing that makes Pepsi great is a built-in process of preparing and
producing a better leader than the current one, always suitable for and
driven by whatever time he or she is placed in.

“She is larger than life,” says Roger Enrico, Nooyi’s predecessor. Nooyi
keeps three of her predecessors not only as elders but also advisors. “They
are my bosses, and my best, best friends,” says Nooyi of her three
predecessors. And it is true. Nooyi calls the three seniors from time to
time for real business advise and the three welcome her with genuine respect
whenever she needs to bring Pepsi Co. bigger and better.

Imagine that: three world-class CEOs being available at any time for advice
with the same intensity when they were still running the company.

Pepsi, unlike most companies of that scale, has not only produced leaders.
The company espouses leadership not as a mantra but believes in it like
breakfast, lunch and dinner.

The next million dollar question is: how to choose a successor? There are
millions of answers to this depending on which business books one reads.
Most say that a great leader prepares his or her successor from day one,
therefore anytime the clock ticks nearing retirement, he or she is prepared
to hand over the position.

I think that is not new. What is new is if a leader pursues the best moment
to hand over the authority whenever there is a better person who is prepared
to take the leadership to the next level. In other words, succession relies
less on time than it does on the need of the organization, companies or
countries.

Certainly, a few potential successors are better than just a successor. The
best successor will be that one individual who does not only share the same
vision, but is also able to translate what are being promoted as identity in
the mind of consumers, investors, and other stakeholders into a set of
behaviours and culture of the employees, members of the organizations or
citizens of the countries.

Dave Ulrich and Norm Smallwood in their book call this unique capability
Leadership Brand. With leadership brand, a collection of individuals will
engender a long lasting capability to produce leaders at every level, for
every challenge and throughout every generation with the same tenacity,
intensity and authenticity.

This is exactly what brands like Pepsi, Coke or Apple have proven. So have
local brands such as Mustika Ratu, Teh Botol or Sampoerna. Yet this is
exactly what most of the parliament members and high state officials have
not shown to the public throughout the archipelago.

We can see how the recent succession of KPK and the governor of Bank
Indonesia were unnecessarily hyped with negative campaign and rumours. With
such a politically driven succession process the public is all but
reasonable to question whether or not their life will be affected for the
better. Such a process hardly installs a capable, let alone true leader.

Thankfully, Indonesian people now are much more empowered – as consumers,
investors or simply voters – with the power to force a suitable succession
when needed. They can do this especially when their interests are at stake.

With such new realization among Indonesians, we must understand that
succession is at the core of every leadership. I simply believe that a weak
leader with a well-meaning succession plan is still a true leader. On the
other hand, a strong leader without a succession plan is like a screen
saver.

I just wish and pray that my own succession plan at HIPMI in three months
time would be smooth and celebrated. I indeed am blessed with so many young
entrepreneurs who would be capable to take this organization from great to
outstanding. I hope that my task of grooming several smart potential
successors was successfully completed.

Indonesia has seen very few exemplary successions because Indonesians choose
so. Once again, succession is like a beautiful dance. And it takes two to
tango.

by Andika Mongilala – Ketua Umum Senat Mahasiswa FE Unsrat 07-08

Dalam satu tahun terakhir sering saya dengar atau temui anak-anak muda yang mulai mendapatkan penghasilan tambahan atau istilahnya ‘side job’ dengan melakukan beragam hal yang tidak pernah mereka lakukan sebelumnya. Mulai menjadi penerjemah buku, laporan tahunan perusahaan atau product manual dari beragam brand terkenal. Selain itu juga ada yang menjadi graphic designer atau ‘konsultan’ beragam kebutuhan perusahaan seperti disain, komunikasi, atau sebagai penyelenggara acara (event organiser).

Yang lebih mengesankan lagi semua itu dikerjakan dari mal, cafe, coffee shop atau internet cafe. Bahkan rumah dan warnet pun semakin ditinggalkan sebagai tempat bekerja. Yang menjadi klien mulai dari keluarga, sahabat atau kerabat dekat.

Banyak dari anak-anak muda tersebut yang masih menyelesaikan kuliah. Tidak sedikit juga yang baru mulai bekerja di perusahaan-perusahaan konsultan asing bergengsi di Jakarta dan Surabaya.

Sangat dinamis, sangat penuh gairah dan sangat cerah masa depan dari anak-anak muda tersebut. Kombinasi antara working hard, working smart dan playing hard semakin bergeser dari tren musiman menjadi gaya hidup.

Kalau keadaan ini terus berlangsung bahkan terus ditingkatkan, dapat dipastikan bahwa prospek bisnis dan perekonomian Indonesia juga semakin cerah.

Fenomena ini membuktikan bahwa banyak bakat yang tidak lagi terpendam yang dimiliki oleh generasi muda Indonesia. Fenomena ini juga membuktikan bahwa generasi yang lebih tua atau setidaknya lebih senior semakin ‘terbiasa’ mempercayakan pekerjaan yang cukup penting kepada generasi muda yang minim namun haus pengalaman. Yang penting adalah keberanian untuk memulai dan mencoba serta komitmen yang tinggi terhadap kualitas dan tenggat waktu.

Bagi saya dan rekan-rekan pengusaha muda, fenomena ini sangat kami syukuri. Bukan apa-apa, mereka dapat benar-benar memenuhi beragam kebutuhan usaha yang tadinya hanya dilayani oleh konsultan asing yang harganya tidak murah dan hasilnya sering kali kurang memuaskan. Walaupun masih bersifat informal, kompetisi sudah mulai tampak bahkan meningkat di antara para ‘side-jobers’.

Mungkin tidak lama lagi sebagian dari mereka akan mulai mendirikan perusahaannya sendiri dan perlahan-lahan menjadi sekumpulan pengusaha muda yang kreatif, haus pengalaman dan tentunya haus akan keberhasilan. Saat itu, harga mereka tidak akan semurah yang mereka tawarkan sekarang.

Tapi tidak apa-apa. Lebih ‘sreg’ rasanya membayar agak lebih mahal kepada sesama pengusaha nasional yang masih muda-muda, dibandingkan perusahaan besar, apalagi perusahan asing. Mari menjadi juara di negeri sendiri. Yuk jadi pengusaha!

By : Andika Mongilala – Ketua Umum Senat Mahasiswa FE Unsrat 07-08

Beberapa waktu ini bahkan sejak menjelang akhir tahun 2006, sering kali saya mendengar masalah krisis energi di dunia ini yang memberikan dampak cukup signifikan pada keadaan ekonomi baik di global ataupun di lokal. Salah satu contoh dampak krisis ini adanya Subprime Mortgage di Amerika yang mengakibatkan beberapa bank-bank besar mengalami kerugian cukup besar dan keadaan ekonomi Amerika yang hampir menuju resesi, yang tentunya sangat berdampak pada ekonomi global di negara lainnya termasuk Indonesia.

Semua berawal dari harga minyak dunia yang melonjak tinggi. Dalam teori ekonomi, harga ditentukan oleh demand dan supply. Karena minyak adalah sumber daya alam yang tidak di dapat diperbarui, secara logika, supply tidak akan bisa bertambah, malahan kemungkinan besar akan berkurang. Akan tetapi demand pasti akan terus meningkat karena pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terus meningkat guna mengikuti pertumbuhan penduduk dunia yang berkembang terus.

Hal yang sama terjadi di Indonesia, dimana sumber energi yang tersedia tidak bisa menyaingi pesatnya kebutuhan energi yang terus meningkat. Akan tetapi, ada sedikit perbedaan di negeri kita ini, yaitu Pemerintah dengan segala kerendahaan hatinya, dapat memberikan subsidi yang cukup besar sehingga rakyat tidak merasakan krisis tersebut diatas. Sebagai ilustrasi, kebutuhan minyak di Indonesia adalah 1.5 kali lebih besar daripada produksi minyak bumi, sehingga memaksa pemerintah untuk mengimpor minyak dari luar negeri dengan harga pasar dan dijual dengan harga subsidi. Pertanyaannya, sampai kapan pemerintah akan kuat mengangkat beban rakyat yang begitu besar? Kepanikan ini mulai terlihat dengan adanya wacana-wacana untuk membatasi penggunaan bahan bakar bersubsidi. Menurut point of view saya, ini bukan merupakan solusi dari permasalahan awal kita. Pembatasan penggunaan BBM bersubsidi adalah salah satu cara untuk memperlambat kolapsnya negara kita sehingga di kemudian hari Pemerintah harus memikirkan kembali cara lain untuk menyikapi krisis energi ini.

Yang kita perlukan adalah solusi. Permasalahannya (clue nya) adalah penggunaan minyak bumi dalam negeri yang lebih besar daripada produksi minyak bumi dalam negeri. Any idea.

From Andika Mongilala